Jan 29, 2022 | 8:08 FEATURED, ECONOMY, TRIBUNE, Tunisia

Faced with the current general crisis in Tunisia, the author will try to demonstrate in this article and through a series of articles that will follow, that the development of a green, inclusive and sustainable economy around green hydrogen could provide answers to issues as scattered as the external debt, the deficit in the external trade balance, the energy deficit, water stress, brain drain, unemployment of higher education graduates, pollution, saturation of public landfills , etc. The hope is that our administration, which lacks vision, economic intelligence and technological watch, does not once again miss a major development potentially bringing incredible opportunities for the country.

By Eng. Chokri Aslouj *

Since the advent of the people's revolution in Tunisia, in 2011, and the freedom of expression that was to follow, I was in all modesty among those who never ceased to hammer home only the real problems of Tunisia. essentially relate to economic development and the creation of wealth, that these provide the firewood to fan the fire of all the other problems of a social, political, financial, security order, etc., and that if we did not take not urgently take the necessary measures, this fire will end up burning everything. It was like a cry into nothingness; the scene was largely haunted by megalomaniacs, arsonists, schemers, profiteers, charlatans and so on, who obviously had other plans to pursue rather than finding solutions for Tunisia's real problems.

Today the bruised homeland is at an impasse and all the indicators are at half mast. Indeed, our dear Tunisia is going through one of the deepest crises in its recent history and perhaps in its history altogether. The specter of being placed under the auspices of the Paris Club haunts the most optimistic minds. A "remake" of the International Financial Commission of 1869, which ratified the loss of our financial independence before sounding the death knell of our sovereignty, is no longer excluded.

Nothing is yet definitively lost

Faced with this gloomy picture, the sacrosanct duty of the Tunisian intelligentsia today would be to raise the bar to avoid falling into the precipice towards which we are heading blindly and at full speed, first of all by cultivating hope and by inculcating in our fellow citizens that, despite all the difficulties we are experiencing, nothing is yet definitively lost, then by tracing the path of salvation that will lead the country to a safe destination. Failing this and if things were to degenerate, future generations would curse us until the end of eternity, for not assisting the homeland in danger.

Although things look more like a Gordian knot at first glance, we will try to demonstrate in this article and through a series of articles that will follow, that the development of a green, inclusive and sustainable economy around green hydrogen could provide answers to issues as scattered as the foreign debt, the deficit in the external trade balance, the energy deficit, water stress, brain drain, unemployment among university graduates, pollution , saturation of public landfills, etc.

Remember that green hydrogen (introduced in a previous article in Kapitalis) is destined to become the clean fuel of the ^21st century. This new energy vector will allow us to mitigate the disastrous consequences of global warming, induced by greenhouse gases, and thus achieve the objectives of the Paris agreement, to which our country committed in December 2015 in the framework of COP21.

To produce green hydrogen and its derivatives, which could solve our toughest problems, we just need renewable energy (mainly solar and wind), municipal waste and sea water, therefore renewable, abundant and free resources in our country.

The energy deficit problem

We will therefore in the series of articles announced, successively draw up an inventory of the most thorny problems of Tunisia and we will begin in this article by tackling the problem of the energy deficit. Let us recall in a nutshell that energy makes the wheel of the economy and of all the activities of our daily life turn. Therefore, our energy security can be seen simply as the keystone of our national security.

Until the year 2000, the balance of the Tunisian energy balance, which represents the national energy availability minus the total consumption of primary energy, was positive (see Fig.1). The sustained increase in consumption and the beginning of the depletion of traditional fields in the south (in particular that of El Borma) caused a slight imbalance between 2000 and 2010.

The advent of the revolution in 2011 and the social unrest, the deterioration of the security situation, the freezing of the granting of permits because of the difficulties in the interpretation of article 13 of the constitution, the slowdown in the work of exploitation, the regression of new proven and exploitable reserves, the non-renewal of exhausted reserves and finally the exodus of oil companies from our country which succeeded it, caused a drastic deterioration of the energy balance, which collapsed in almost free fall.

The repeated delay in the entry into production of the Nawara gas field in Tataouine and the stumbling start of the energy transition because of the resistance to ceding the monopoly of electricity production first and then the blocking by the unions of the connection to the network of photovoltaic power stations built and which were supposed to bring relief from the deterioration of the energy balance, only made the situation worse.

The accumulated delay in the implementation of the energy transition, although of a vital and strategic dimension, is today estimated at 15 years so that, despite the ambitious objectives announced with great fanfare, the contribution of renewable energies is still marginal and it has only changed insignificantly over the last decade (from 0.4% in 2010 to 1.3% in 2020) due to an inconsequential energy transition policy. We would just have to look at Morocco to realize our shortcomings.

Despite the relative weakening of the upward trend since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic (see Fig.2), we can expect that the worsening of the energy deficit will resume with renewed vigor, once the health crisis is crossed.

The windfall of natural gas could be jeopardized

About 95% of electricity production in our country comes from the combustion of natural gas (see Fig. 3). Tunisia manages to ensure the supply of 65% of its natural gas needs, ie 3.8 billion cubic meters, through the royalty on the gas pipeline, which crosses the national territory to transport Algerian gas to Italy.

However, this windfall could be jeopardized once the Galsi project has been completed (see Fig. 4). This is a gas pipeline that connects the Algerian installations of Koudiet Draouche to Piombino in Italy via Sardinia passing under the Mediterranean Sea in addition to its interconnection at Hasi R'mel with the trans-Saharan gas pipeline, linking the Nigeria to Europe through Algeria and Niger, which will obviously make the Trans-Mediterranean gas pipeline, which passes through Tunisia with a share of around 6% of the gas transported, virtually obsolete. This risks depriving our country of a large part of its gas needs and thus destabilizing the system put in place for the production of electrical energy.

Let us recall that as a result of the politico-security imbroglio which opposes it to Morocco on the question of Western Sahara, Algeria has already cut off the tap to the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline, which passes through Morocco and intends to replace it with the Medgaz (see Fig. 4). Personally I don't think our big neighbor would be tempted to shoot us in the foot, especially in this precarious situation, but according to Murphy's law that anything that can go wrong will go wrong and a disaster never comes alone and since energy security is a matter of national security, we should therefore be prepared for all eventualities.

In Tunisia's state Tunerep energy sector reform plan, which is funded by a grant from a Deauville Partnership Transition Fund and managed by the OPEC Fund for International Development (Ofid) and whose document has just been published in 2011, the announced roadmap practically turns a deaf ear to the major and global upheaval of the energy sector by the entry into the scene of green hydrogen to decarbonise the world economy.

Indeed and just by way of example, in the Tunerep study and more particularly in activity N°8, relating to the feasibility study for the development of the only oil refinery, which Tunisia has, we stipulates the establishment of a gray hydrogen production unit, with a capacity of 2.4T/h for the supply of the hydrocracking process, using (hold on tight) natural gas as raw material , while the major oil producers in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the lead, are in the process of launching the largest projects for the production of green hydrogen on a global scale.

Everything leads us to predict that our administration, through a lack of vision, economic intelligence and technological watch, is once again missing a major development potentially bringing incredible opportunities for the country.

Conclusion

The development of green hydrogen will enable Tunisia to ensure its independence and therefore its energy security. Steg's gas turbines, which produce our electricity, are largely "hydrogen ready", i.e. they could run in whole or in part on hydrogen instead of natural gas, with minimal modifications and inexpensive, which will allow us to secure our electricity production by our own means without resorting to the purchase of natural gas in foreign currencies. Furthermore, green hydrogen in its pure form or in the form of derivatives such as methanol or synthetic fuels could be used both in mobility and in the various sectors of industry. The energy deficit which requires us to obtain supplies of hydrocarbons on the international market and which represents a heavy burden for the coffers of the State could thus find its remedy. Better yet, we can create wealth and added value, Tunisia could become an exporting country of green hydrogen and an important player in this new, very lucrative international market.

To be continued.

* Former President of the Council for Engineering Sciences, the think-tank of the Order of Tunisian Engineers (OIT).

Article by the same author in Kapitalis:

An opinion on “The energy problem in Tunisia (1/6): green hydrogen could be the solution”

1. Sectors of the economy in Tunisia are still designed and run by charlatans, it seems… You only start moving when you see the fire approaching your chair… and your kitchen.

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