January is off to a strong start in Poland! We asked Nicolas Maslowski, political scientist, working on themes such as Central Europe, communism and post-communism, international relations, historical sociology and collective memory, to enlighten us on the two great scandals that are shaking the opinion at the start of the year.

First scandal: the case concerning the Pegasus spyware, which the ruling party, PiS (Law and Justice) allegedly used to spy on three people opposed to the government: a member of the opposition and two lawyers.

Second scandal: the Nowy Ład, "New Economic Order", which should theoretically make it possible to revive the economy by implementing tax relief for citizens and businesses, except that we do not understand much about it, even, some have even seen their payslips decrease!

The opportunity also for Nicolas Maslowski to return to the policy of the PiS and its revolution within the Polish institutions, the place of Poland in the European Union, the rule of law.

The Pegasus affair, a reminder of the facts

On January 7, 2022, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, chairman of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party and deputy prime minister, admitted that Poland had bought the Pegasus spyware, explaining to the weekly W Sieci that “ It would be bad if the Polish services did not have this type of tool”. This software was allegedly used against three people in Poland, including Krzysztof Brejza, senator of the main opposition party: Civic Platform (PO), while coordinating the PO campaign, during the legislative elections in 2019.

Lepetitjournal.com/Varsovie: When you go to the site of the Israeli company NSO Group, it is explained on the home page that the Pegasus software is used in the fight against terrorism and serious crime. What could legitimize the use of this software in Poland in general and against the three spied personalities, Krzysztof Brejza, Roman Giertych and Ewa Wrzosek, in particular?

Nicolas Maslowski: Pegasus is extremely powerful software that modifies observation and espionage methods by giving power to its users in general, to States in particular. Nowadays, most citizens in the world have a smartphone, which then serves as a gateway to spy on their private life, through their e-mails and other messaging, the capture of images and sounds.

From a factual point of view, in 2018 we already have reports from the Citizen Lab, an organization based within the University of Toronto in Canada, which observes citizens' rights and reports that this software is used in Poland .

Pegasus should only be used in the fight against terrorism or serious crime. However, this organization, the Citizen Lab, has noted that for years now its use has been a danger to human rights. This has been clearly observed in the United Arab Emirates, Mexico, with uses against journalists.

There were criticisms concerning this practice, but these states having already accustomed us to certain human rights violations, consequently, the Polish or French public opinion was not moved by it, until the use of Pegasus, by Spain, against the President of the Catalan Parliament: Roger Torrent, be disclosed.

In Spain, we touched on a sensitive area, on the border between democracy and the definition of terrorism, since there were simultaneously Catalan separatist activities, which could allow the representatives of local democracy to be described as terrorists. But at the same time, it was as President of the local parliament that Roger Torrent was listened to, observed, spied on.

In Poland, the controversies are, I think, even stronger, insofar as we cannot even use the argument of the desire for independence of a Polish region. Here it turns out (and it is confirmed by a number of institutions) that this software was used against Krzysztof Brejza, current opposition senator, when he headed the electoral committee of the Polish centrist party in 2019 (Civic Platform, PO). It was also used to monitor other individuals considered to be in conflict with the power in place: Roman Giertych, a lawyer involved in several cases against the ruling party, Law and Justice (PiS) and Ewa Wrzosek, a prosecutor opposed to the reforms. in Poland, in disagreement with her Minister, whose activities she considers intrusive.

What are the arguments put forward by the PiS and its leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, to legitimize this wiretapping and can this scandal put his party in danger?

To protect his party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski argues that it is not his own strategy that has been developed, but that of the security organs, which are very professional and act legally. As they cultivate professional secrecy, it is necessary to rely on trust: if they resort to such means, it is because they have reasons. To sum up, we would go up a pin, a case that is not one. This is the point of view he offers.

From a strategic point of view, I can only observe a confrontation of arguments: opponents of the government consider that Pegasus was used to spy on the opposition during the election period, a technique used to favor a political camp.

If the Citizen Lab discovers that other political figures of the opposition or the majority are involved, it will confirm something that already seems obvious: Pegasus is used for electoral and political purposes unrelated to terrorism or serious crime.

What is the impact of this case on PiS voters?

The hard core of PiS voters was generally unconvinced by the opposition's arguments about authoritarian drift. This hard core can be estimated at a quarter or a third of the voters. It is difficult to predict what will be done tomorrow, but a new trend seems to be taking shape: the polls (we know the limits of this instrument) currently show that a large part of PiS voters (around 40%) expect light is shed on this case because they are upset.

Does this month of January 2022 mark the beginning of a more worrying political crisis?

We are witnessing reactions among the Poles which could show that this crisis is perhaps more important than the others. In addition, it is temporally linked to another scandal: that of the dysfunctions appearing in the economic reforms that came into force on January 1, 2022: the Nowy Ład, “the New Order”.

In January alone, we are dealing with two important cases, of which I would tend to think that the Nowy Ład case will affect the Poles even more, because it directly attacks their wallets.

However, these two simultaneous scandals do not currently reflect significant variations in the polls of support for political parties.

I see this as a weakening of the convictions of the electorate of the ruling party, which considers that we are going too far here, but at the same time, there is currently no visible loss of support. We can perhaps interpret this as the fact that the electorate of the ruling coalition is calling on its leaders to readjust the course. It's not a loss of confidence, I interpret it more as a call not to go too far.

Overall, what does Nowy Ład consist of, having to revive the economy through a “New Economic Order” in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and which is intended as a social measure for the middle class?

The government proposed a series of economic reforms under the name of Nowy Ład, “the New Order”, implied, “the New Economic Order”, always with this somewhat revolutionary rhetoric found in the PiS. They propose a number of reforms which should allow a fairer distribution of costs, since the PiS wants to distinguish itself from the previous powers by a more social approach.

There is a central aspect in this reform, which is the definition of tax relief granted to the middle class. What is paradoxical is that this reform defines the rich as those with the highest 8.5% income. The middle class is defined as the 26% of Poles with the highest incomes, with the exception of the richest.

As you can see, it is a definition of the middle class that is quite original: we don't really know how to interpret it, but we have the idea that the richest or the highest incomes must pay more. That then there is a middle class which would already have a certain number of reductions; then big cuts for the poorest half of the population.

There seems to be a lot of disorder surrounding this reform. Some employees have already seen their payslips decrease. In Poland, some receive their salaries at the beginning of the month, others at the end of the month, for the month already worked. Those who have already received their pay slip for the month of January 2022, such as nurses, primary school teachers, teachers, academics, have already noticed a drop in income, while they do not consider themselves (and rightly so) as doing part of the wealthiest. I remind you that in Poland, tax is deducted at source. The government has given them several official reasons, explaining that they are either accounting errors or elements that need to be refined. It would seem that the hard core of the PiS electorate here is patient, we will see for how much longer.

Do we know exactly what the profile of PiS voters is?

It is important to remember that the judgment of the competence of politicians belongs to the electorate. What counts in a democracy is not the opinion of academics, but the vote of voters

Sociologist Maciej Gdula did a study on a small town in Poland. To simplify, there would be three types of motivation for the PiS vote: on the one hand those forgotten by the transition, most from Poland B (eastern territories), the poorest; then, there are people who do not recognize themselves in the evolution of mores who can be called Conservatives; finally, there are voters who have benefited from the transformations, who are successful but who feel they deserve more.

It is a more sovereignist, patriotic population which would like Poland to keep the attributes of control of the classical nation, including on questions of morals or evolution. In short, that everything is decided in Warsaw rather than in Brussels.

Sociologist Mirosława Grabowska has shown a particularly strong sociological link between religious practice and voting for the PiS. Nevertheless, let's keep in mind that not every practicing voter necessarily votes for the PiS and that not every PiS voter is necessarily practicing.

There was also this movement of vice-directors who wanted to become directors or “caliphs in place of the Caliph” to use the words of René Goscinny. The PiS came at a time when the previous party, Civic Platform (PO), had been in place for some time. As a reminder, after the extraordinary upheavals of the 90s, it was possible to have an incredible career at a very young age. Today, we are witnessing a stabilization of social positions, even a reproduction. The circulation of elites has actually frozen and many people do not understand why their turn does not come.

Can we go so far as to speak of a conservative revolution with the PiS?

The PiS has revolutionary rhetoric. We can speak here, indeed, of a conservative revolution. On the other hand, I am not sure that the PiS has a very clear vision of the goal to be achieved. There are a number of elements that are put forward, such as sovereignty and so on.

But the revolution can also serve as a social elevator. We can already observe a certain number of sympathizers or members of the party who manage to progress very quickly in their career, by their attachment, their loyalty to the movement, or after having joined the ranks of the faithful of the PiS. This is why it is revolutionary since there have been major changes in public television, for example (Telewizja Polska, TVP), in the justice sector, in certain companies. There is a change of decision-makers under the influence of political affiliation.

The PiS seems to be tightening the screw by chaining reforms; whether in the media or in the justice system, does this translate into a real loss of autonomy?

It is true that both in the field of public television (TVP) and in the field of justice, what is criticized for the PiS is the loss of autonomy following structural reforms put in place by the coalition in power.

Yes, the PiS is tightening the screw, because regularly, there are a number of reforms that are made, aimed at establishing men of trust in more and more institutions, thus making them lose their autonomy. The quiet revolution continues, in the form of a progressive seizure of power in more and more institutions, so that the power puts its own frameworks there.

The situation could stabilize, the process slow down.

Going back to the beginning of our conversation, the Pegasus affair could change all this, because some of the electorate in power, and even politicians in power, consider that all of this is going too far. And this scandal follows another crisis: faced with the attempt to ban the main television, TVN (private television channel), President Duda used his right of veto. There too, it went much too far.

Will the revolutionary PiS movement survive such a stabilization? The question is real, because he would lose the ability to distribute more and more posts to his friends…

John Scott-Railton, senior researcher at Citizen Lab in Canada, said the detected uses of Pegasus were just “the tip of the iceberg” and that its use indicated “an authoritarian shift” in Poland. Do you share his opinion or can we go so far as to speak of totalitarianism, as at the time of PRL?

“Totalitarian” is not the word that corresponds to Poland today. The PiS, since coming to power, has been fairly regularly accused of having authoritarian tendencies and of moving away from democracy.

The authoritarian turn is very clear and it can even recall the communist era. We are, however, in a situation of a different nature. Opposition politicians do not end up in jail or murdered. But should Poles worry about the future of their democracy?

I think it is extremely important for Polish citizens, as well as for all European citizens, to take an interest in their democracy on a daily basis since it is challenged by power, on the one hand.

And by new technologies, on the other hand, which are changing the way politics works. These new technologies are bringing up new dangers that we did not know about such as disinformation, fake news, deepfakes or hypertricks, trolls, bots, etc. All this remains rather vague, it is still difficult to see the extent of the phenomenon. It seems that it is not the Pegasus program alone that defines the danger, but all of these new elements that make new dangers appear - knowing that the old ones have not disappeared.

Citizens must therefore remain active and vigilant in defending their democracy against all the dangers of manipulation and abuse of power.

Does Poland have a surge of identity in response to the 1989 earthquake? In this conservative revolutionary momentum, could it be considered to leave the European Union?

Poland has known great upheavals since 1989. Thirty-three years, on the scale of democracy, is rather short.

We have witnessed a sudden, rapid, radical transformation of society, of the economy, of beliefs, of political systems. It's normal to go through a certain number of stutters, doubts, searches… I don't think that Poland is currently really on the way to evolving in the direction taken by Russia or Turkey.

I rather think that Poland, like Hungary to which it is often compared in terms of conservatism, has a strong sense of belonging to the European family. Current tensions will not get him out of it. The Poles are very attached to their western affiliation, they are not ready to abandon this link.

Poland has made deviations from the rule of law, this is a point that can be contentious. The difference in evolution with Hungary lies in the fact that the latter has passed illiberal constitutional reforms. In Hungary, it is by law that the country has moved away from democracy. Between the two, it's hard to know which is better or worse.

On the other hand, breaches of the rule of law are a real long-term problem, these include points of conflict with the European Union and accusations of non-respect of the independence of justice.

The Pegasus affair can be considered as a typical example of the state's failure to respect the rights of citizens.

Nicolas Maslowski, a Frenchman of Polish origin, is a political scientist, sociologist and director of the Center for French Civilization and Francophone Studies (CCFEF), a Franco-Polish center open to all human and social sciences, which has been all times, led by a Frenchman, within the University of Warsaw, and with the support of the French Embassy.

This center was created more than 60 years ago by the French philosopher and historian Michel Foucault (1926-1984), author of a reference work questioning in particular the links between knowledge, power and the criticism of institutions.

One of the main missions of the CCFEF, stemming from this heritage, is to promote the debate of ideas between Poland and France around major European issues and elements of forecasting as well as questions of memory and narratives of history. .